Matt Karash: Carolina Hurricanes Blog: What does it take for Canes to make playoffs?

Wait for next season? Is this the answer to your question?

Wait for next season? Is this the answer to your question?

Wait for next season? Is this the answer to your question?
- Hemeros

thanks for stopping by

16-8-1 record is pretty spot on, Matt. It will be a tough sled but if everyone plays to their potential the Canes' have a shot at getting in. My initial observation is the games they must win, they must win. I'm afraid the Calgary, Winnipeg and a few of the Columbus past games will hurt in the long run. As always it will be interesting.

If JR can get his hands off his arse and get a 3C the chances of making the playoffs goes up quite a bit.

I hope that if they miss the playoffs they do it in a convincing manner, such that they get a high pick next year and also trade some rentals (ie. Hainsey) to help with the incredibly weak prospect pool. Worst case scenario is they hang in there and miss by a few points and end up with mid first round pick.

Or course would love to see them come of the break on fire and give us a fun spring. Agree with your points on what would need to happen to make this come true.

I hope that if they miss the playoffs they do it in a convincing manner, such that they get a high pick next year and also trade some rentals (ie. Hainsey) to help with the incredibly weak prospect pool. Worst case scenario is they hang in there and miss by a few points and end up with mid first round pick.

Or course would love to see them come of the break on fire and give us a fun spring. Agree with your points on what would need to happen to make this come true.
- grubber

The Canes play 5 straight on the road right after the break and before the trade deadline. The last 3 are a challenging SJ, Ana and LA. If that stretch does not go well (1-4, 1-3-1 or even 2-3) and the teams above the Canes win, it could shift Rutherford more into a sell mode. If instead, the Canes do well in that difficult 5-game stretch, it could prompt Rutherford to become a modest/opportunistic deadline buyer.

The Canes play 5 straight on the road right after the break and before the trade deadline. The last 3 are a challenging SJ, Ana and LA. If that stretch does not go well (1-4, 1-3-1 or even 2-3) and the teams above the Canes win, it could shift Rutherford more into a sell mode. If instead, the Canes do well in that difficult 5-game stretch, it could prompt Rutherford to become a modest/opportunistic deadline buyer.
- CarolinaMatt63

This is the way I see it, and also why I see it as the end of any playoff hope. This team isn't one that seems to respond well after a few days off. How are they going to look after a couple of weeks off? I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see how they manage to get what they need on that road trip.

The team is capable (as they showed against the Blues at home). They just don't seem to bring it. I have a real issue with the lack of emotion from behind the bench.

This is the way I see it, and also why I see it as the end of any playoff hope. This team isn't one that seems to respond well after a few days off. How are they going to look after a couple of weeks off? I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see how they manage to get what they need on that road trip.

The team is capable (as they showed against the Blues at home). They just don't seem to bring it. I have a real issue with the lack of emotion from behind the bench.
- el conquistador

If this is what transpires over the next 2 months then how much turnover does Matt or anyone see in the front office and behind the bench. I think Karmanos needs to realistically look at the situation and make major changes before it hits the fan base any harder. We are heading into FL Panthers territory here with missing the playoffs on an annual basis. Not good for growing the fan base.

If this is what transpires over the next 2 months then how much turnover does Matt or anyone see in the front office and behind the bench. I think Karmanos needs to realistically look at the situation and make major changes before it hits the fan base any harder. We are heading into FL Panthers territory here with missing the playoffs on an annual basis. Not good for growing the fan base.
- monty burns

This situation is exactly where JR has been wrong year in year out the team coming down the stretch is right there for a playoff spot and JR say's" Well the next week or two will know where were at If were buyer's or seller's"...Well the problem is when you know you need a couple players to get you there and you sit on your hands and the team falls short a few games..AGAIN. Then the blame falls on JR as this was the case before the season started being the team needed a Veteran 3C If Lindholm didn't fill the spot. Then fast forward same situation were right there but need help.

JR will then say well "We could've made a move but I didn't want to over pay"...Let me see here that's like going to buy let's say a car that you need because the one you have is about done and the dealer is making you a deal when he knows you need the car which is not the best but not the worst since he needs to get the car off his books and would keep you off the side of the road when the old one breaks down. The car's price is $16000 and you say "I want pay a penny over $13000 + trade in" and the dealer says "I'll have to make repairs on your trade in to sell it and say's that's the best I can do" and you say "sorry that's to much" then you stomp off get in the old car tell the wife and kids "the dealer was a little to high" and the wife says "you should've taken the deal". You leave the dealership get just out of sight and the transmission blows and there you sit your wife saying "I told you so" and the kids whining and then you get towed back to the dealership and tell the salesman "I'll take it and give you enough to cover the transmission repair"...Then he says "sorry just sold the car!"..Jr is the cheap Dad, Muller is the "Told you so" wife and we fans are the whining kids!..Time for a divorce!

JR will then say well "We could've made a move but I didn't want to over pay"...Let me see here that's like going to buy let's say a car that you need because the one you have is about done and the dealer is making you a deal when he knows you need the car which is not the best but not the worst since he needs to get the car off his books and would keep you off the side of the road when the old one breaks down. The car's price is $16000 and you say "I want pay a penny over $13000 + trade in" and the dealer says "I'll have to make repairs on your trade in to sell it and say's that's the best I can do" and you say "sorry that's to much" then you stomp off get in the old car tell the wife and kids "the dealer was a little to high" and the wife says "you should've taken the deal". You leave the dealership get just out of sight and the transmission blows and there you sit your wife saying "I told you so" and the kids whining and then you get towed back to the dealership and tell the salesman "I'll take it and give you enough to cover the transmission repair"...Then he says "sorry just sold the car!"..Jr is the cheap Dad, Muller is the "Told you so" wife and we fans are the whining kids!..Time for a divorce!
- elaeskimos

Funny. But also painfully maybe not too far off.

If you look at 2013-14 by itself, I think you have to give Rutherford more credit than blame:
--Sekera was a huge win.
--Khudobin was also a huge win. (Side note that you could make a pretty good case for either of those 2 being the team MVP so far.)
--The Gerbe & Palushaj low-risk additions yielded 1 key top 9 forward for cheap.
--With Pitkanen going down very late, Hainsey has worked out reasonably well as an emergency replacement.

The failures have pretty much exclusively come from expensive veterans who have struggled.

I think the 1 thing (that someone noted) that you can pin on Rutherford is his lack of a response at 3C. He more or less handed this spot to Lindholm before he even landed in Raleigh. When this failed out of the gate due to injury, it seemed like the right time to get aggressive and add 1 more player to fill this slot. If you fast forward to now, what is really a 4th line has been overslotted into 3rd line responsibilities/ice time. Secondary scoring has been sporadic. And the lack of enough help to build a scoring-focused 3rd line has forced Muller to reunite Skinner and JStaal despite the early season realization (and success even) that it made more sense to put the 2's different skill sets on different lines.

Divine intervention? They're just building to the point of tanking next year, so they can try and snag Connor McDavid. Something about those old southeastern division teams, doing this, to grab stars........see Stamkos in Tampa!

Divine intervention? They're just building to the point of tanking next year, so they can try and snag Connor McDavid. Something about those old southeastern division teams, doing this, to grab stars........see Stamkos in Tampa!
- PrinceLH

I disagree JR has tanked the team the last 5 yrs and his questionable drafting means tanking would be a crap shoot with JR...He chose Lindholm over Nickushkin!

Funny. But also painfully maybe not too far off.

If you look at 2013-14 by itself, I think you have to give Rutherford more credit than blame:
--Sekera was a huge win.
--Khudobin was also a huge win. (Side note that you could make a pretty good case for either of those 2 being the team MVP so far.)
--The Gerbe & Palushaj low-risk additions yielded 1 key top 9 forward for cheap.
--With Pitkanen going down very late, Hainsey has worked out reasonably well as an emergency replacement.

The failures have pretty much exclusively come from expensive veterans who have struggled.
I think the 1 thing (that someone noted) that you can pin on Rutherford is his lack of a response at 3C. He more or less handed this spot to Lindholm before he even landed in Raleigh. When this failed out of the gate due to injury, it seemed like the right time to get aggressive and add 1 more player to fill this slot. If you fast forward to now, what is really a 4th line has been overslotted into 3rd line responsibilities/ice time. Secondary scoring has been sporadic. And the lack of enough help to build a scoring-focused 3rd line has forced Muller to reunite Skinner and JStaal despite the early season realization (and success even) that it made more sense to put the 2's different skill sets on different lines.
- CarolinaMatt63

I agree and you can look at all his reclamation projects and seemingly coal for gold trades then he takes a chance on Lindholm overrating his NHL readiness at center knowing Nickushkin is a home run or not making Mason Raymond or Brad Boyes offers when he picked up Dvorak which is a "What were you thinking" moment.

Then there's Ruutu having hip surgery last year which asks the question why didn't you buy out a player that may not play again or at a $4.75m level when you gotta know if your JR it will likely come to a buy out/trade anyway?

I agree and you can look at all his reclamation projects and seemingly coal for gold trades then he takes a chance on Lindholm overrating his NHL readiness at center knowing Nickushkin is a home run or not making Mason Raymond or Brad Boyes offers when he picked up Dvorak which is a "What were you thinking" moment.

Then there's Ruutu having hip surgery last year which asks the question why didn't you buy out a player that may not play again or at a $4.75m level when you gotta know if your JR it will likely come to a buy out/trade anyway?
- elaeskimos

agree with everything you said. Like Lindholm, but Nickuskin would've been the better pick and is NHL ready. Also they missed boat on Mason Raymond too. JR choices are very hard to understand IMHO.

I agree and you can look at all his reclamation projects and seemingly coal for gold trades then he takes a chance on Lindholm overrating his NHL readiness at center knowing Nickushkin is a home run or not making Mason Raymond or Brad Boyes offers when he picked up Dvorak which is a "What were you thinking" moment.

Then there's Ruutu having hip surgery last year which asks the question why didn't you buy out a player that may not play again or at a $4.75m level when you gotta know if your JR it will likely come to a buy out/trade anyway?
- elaeskimos

I think JR's offseason is a mixed bag. He did pass on a couple players who might have helped and misjudged Lindholm's readiness, but at the same time he made a number of key additions and really did not miss on anything but low cost/low risk stuff. Khudobin, Gerbe and Sekera have all been huge wins. Palushaj (part of the no risk adds at forward that included Gerbe) has not played a part but did not cost anything either, and while Komisarek has not played a significant role, his $800k price is not off base for his limited role.

Of the possible adds that Rutherford passed on, I think the biggest might have been Matt Niskanen. When Pittsburgh had an overabundance of healthy defenseman during the summer and were trying to squeeze under the salary cap the rumored asking price for Niskanen was a 3rd round pick. Who knows for sure what he would have cost, but it would have been a bargain. Niskanen could have been almost a perfect complement to Hainsey as a right shot defenseman who was top 4 capable defensively but also leaned a little bit more toward skill, offense and power play capability.

I also do not get the buy out thing. It is really a tool for big market teams to pay huge amounts of cash to regain salary cap. For a team like the Canes that is not determined to spend above the cap even if it means paying a big cash fee to do so, it just does not usually make sense. In the case of Ruutu, the math says that the cost to keep him is about $1.6M/year. As much as Ruutu has not played at a $5M level this season, it would be an easy decision for me to keep him at $1.6M (which is all you really save by buying him out). At that price, he is only a tiny bit above normal cost for a 4th-liner but has way more upside.

I think JR's offseason is a mixed bag. He did pass on a couple players who might have helped and misjudged Lindholm's readiness, but at the same time he made a number of key additions and really did not miss on anything but low cost/low risk stuff. Khudobin, Gerbe and Sekera have all been huge wins. Palushaj (part of the no risk adds at forward that included Gerbe) has not played a part but did not cost anything either, and while Komisarek has not played a significant role, his $800k price is not off base for his limited role.

Of the possible adds that Rutherford passed on, I think the biggest might have been Matt Niskanen. When Pittsburgh had an overabundance of healthy defenseman during the summer and were trying to squeeze under the salary cap the rumored asking price for Niskanen was a 3rd round pick. Who knows for sure what he would have cost, but it would have been a bargain. Niskanen could have been almost a perfect complement to Hainsey as a right shot defenseman who was top 4 capable defensively but also leaned a little bit more toward skill, offense and power play capability.

I also do not get the buy out thing. It is really a tool for big market teams to pay huge amounts of cash to regain salary cap. For a team like the Canes that is not determined to spend above the cap even if it means paying a big cash fee to do so, it just does not usually make sense. In the case of Ruutu, the math says that the cost to keep him is about $1.6M/year. As much as Ruutu has not played at a $5M level this season, it would be an easy decision for me to keep him at $1.6M (which is all you really save by buying him out). At that price, he is only a tiny bit above normal cost for a 4th-liner but has way more upside.
- CarolinaMatt63

True but, if Ruutu can play like in the Olympic tourney and pot about 15pts that would be great but like in his case it's a roster spot production problem where it's he has a 2nd line cap hit but playing 4th line TOI and combine Ruutu/Ward's cap hit and that's 2/3 player's and Faulk signed.

In Ruutu's case JR could see the writing on the wall maybe even more than before he sent Jokinen packing as with Jokinen was just playing with different players than Ruutu and Skinner and with the Canes lack of bottom 6 scoring well you know that Jokinen was going to fall off but as of right know boy we could sure use him as he was our swiss army knife forward his 16g 42 pts even though it would be less here would've played well with Manny which would give the ability Muller to put Dwyer on the 4th line and Jokinen/Mo/Ruutu is a pretty good 3rd line as Bo/Nash/Dwyer is a 4th but, as you look the GLARING need of a true 3C is obvious even through JR's rose colored glasses and at the time Ray Shero may have taken Ruutu over Jokinen.